After
years of warning the world about global warming and its dire consequences, Al
Gore, the Nobel Prize winner, has finally taken the next, logical step. He is proposing a solution.
Mr.
Gore has realized that conservation measures and “Cap and Trade” measures do
not work. The world can be saved only,
if we completely eliminate all carbon dioxide emissions during the next forty
years.
Converting
the electric power generating sector first, does make the most sense. All major technologies for generating
electric power from renewable energy sources are in various stages of
development. Installations using wind
power, solar energy, geothermal heat, and marine power have been started up and
are slowly gaining a measurable foothold.
At
present, coal fired power plants generate the least expensive electricity. Therefore, market forces will never lead to
the shutdown of the most egregious greenhouse gas emitters. Only legislative action can prevent the
construction of any new, coal fired power plants.
We
must also be aware that it will be very difficult to satisfy our growing
electricity demand by building only windmill farms, solar plantations, and
geothermal power plants. For many years
to come there will not be enough manufacturing capacity to build an adequate
number of electric power plants using renewable energies. Initially, the capital costs of these plants
will be high, risks for meeting rated output will be well above average, and
elevated maintenance costs will be a common experience.
We
also need to address a few unresolved technical issues. The most pressing one is the fact that both
wind power and solar power can supply energy only on an interruptible basis. Electric power is a fleeting commodity and we
have not yet developed technologies that are capable of storing large amounts
of electric energy.
It
seems unavoidable that nuclear power generation must assume a more substantial
role during the next decade or two.
Nuclear power has become safer and public resistance to nuclear power
plants is slowly receding. Nuclear power
plants can be installed faster once we begin to rely more on standardized
reactor designs.
Nuclear
reactors with smaller capacities need to be built as replacements for coal
fired plant boilers. Huge amounts of
capital and much time can be saved if existing coal plants can be retrofitted
with steam produced in nuclear reactors to replace coal fired boilers. Steam turbines, generators, substations,
administrative buildings, and cooling towers can continue their operation with
only minor performance reductions.
This
new type of reactor must be designed to be absolutely safe by installing both
passive and redundant safety systems.
Retrofit reactors should become available in a very few standardized
designs and in sizes that fit up with the predominant sizes of coal fired boilers
in use.
While
the US will be replacing,
retrofitting, or shutting down its fossil fuel fired plants, it is an opportune
time to prepare the US
to regain its independence from foreign oil imports.
Very
soon, such activity can save the US more than one trillion dollars
annually. Past experience shows that petroleum
prices and consumption of transportation fuels will maintain their unstoppable growths.
Ideally,
the world will continue using its fleets of cars, trucks, trains, ships, and
airplanes. Ideally, the world will keep
its oil refineries operating and will preserve the huge distribution systems
that deliver high quality liquid fuels to all corners of the world. Replacing transportation fleets, oil
refineries, and liquid fuel distribution systems will cost too much and may
break the economies of even the richest countries.
We
must realize that the world cannot live for more than a few weeks without
transportation of foods, goods, and commodities. Famines, riots, and economic upheavals will become
unavoidable consequences of the lack of plentiful and affordable transportation
fuels.
To
protect against such looming, economic disasters, the US must take the lead and learn how
to produce petroleum substitutes from biomass.
Recent events have taught us that we must never again abuse arable lands
to make ethanol or diesel from food crops.
Instead,
we must find plant species with very high energy contents and must grow these
plants on arid and infertile lands. By
using desalinated water and novel industrial farming techniques one can grow
enough biomass to supply the entire world with transportation fuels for several
centuries. Arid lands are abundant. Best of all, making petroleum substitutes
from renewable biomass sources will not have to cost more than $50 per barrel.
Building
plants for the domestic production of electric power and of transportation
fuels from renewable energies will make the US strategically more secure, will
make us economically stronger, will reduce global greenhouse gas emissions by
one quarter, will create a huge number of jobs, and will pay for itself by
producing large, domestic revenues for many decades to come.
The US
must lead the world by example. No other
country has the capabilities and the resources to rebuild its energy supply
systems.